On Thursday, Donald Trump told Newsmax that the United States is talking to Russia and China about denuclearization. His line was that China will “catch up” with the US nuclear stockpile within five years, and that all three of the world’s biggest nuclear powers should sit down and talk about cutting their arsenals.
The numbers are worth a look. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia holds the most stored nuclear warheads, followed by the United States, then China. The US, though, has the most warheads actually deployed. Trump’s claim is that both the US and Russia sit above 4,000 warheads, and China is closing the gap fast.
What makes this news to me is the timing. The New START treaty — the last remaining arms-control deal between the US and Russia, signed back in 2010 — expired earlier this year. For the first time in a long while, there is no treaty at all limiting these two countries’ nuclear weapons. So when a US president says denuclearization talks are happening, it matters, even if I take it with a pinch of salt.
Here is why I am skeptical. China has said again and again that its nuclear force is purely defensive and that it has no interest in an arms race. Beijing has shown no sign of joining a deal that would freeze it at a number far below the US and Russia. And Trump saying “we’re talking” in a TV interview is not the same as a real negotiating table with real inspectors.
But here is the other side of it, and I want to be fair: talking is better than not talking. When the two biggest nuclear powers have no treaty between them at all, even the idea of talks lowers the temperature a little. The worst outcome would be silence, a buildup, and everyone guessing what the other side is planning.
My honest take: I do not expect a new treaty anytime soon. The gap between what Washington wants and what Beijing will accept is huge, and Moscow has its own reasons to drag its feet. But the fact that denuclearization is back on the table as a talking point — after years when nobody in Washington even mentioned it — tells me the pressure of an arms race is getting hard to ignore. If you ask me, the real test will be whether anyone puts inspectors and deadlines on the table, not just words on TV.
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